Tamizaje, prevalencia, diagnóstico previo, tratamiento y control de hipertensión, hipercolesterolemia y diabetes en adultos mexicanos. Ensanut 2022.

OBJETIVO: Describir las estimaciones de tamizaje, prevalencia, diagnóstico previo, tratamiento y control de hipertensión, hipercolesterolemia y diabetes, así como sus factores asociados en los adultos mexicanos. Material y métodos. Se utilizó información de los adultos de 20 años o más participantes de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2022 (Ensanut 2022). Se presentan estimaciones de prevalencias con sus intervalos de confianza al 95%, y modelos de regresión logística múltiple para cada padecimiento, con factores asociados al tamizaje, diagnóstico previo, tratamiento y control. RESULTADOS: El tamizaje de estas tres enfermedades es bajo, menor a 15%. La prevalencia de hipercolesterolemia y de diabetes es de 18% y la de hipertensión es 27.8%; cerca de la mitad conoce su diagnóstico. La proporción de pacientes con tratamiento farmacológico ha incrementado, pero menos de la mitad está en control. Conclusión. Es recomendable que la detección de estas enfermedades se haga de manera integrada con otros factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Se necesita aumentar los porcentajes de tamizaje, incrementar la proporción de enfermos con diagnóstico previo, mejorar el porcentaje de tratamiento médico de estas enfermedades y, sobre todo, aumentar la proporción de enfermos con tratamiento en control metabólico.

Prevalencia de prediabetes y diabetes en México: Ensanut 2022.

OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia de prediabetes y diabetes en la población adulta mexicana. Material y métodos. Se utilizó información de la submuestra de adultos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2022 con una muestra de sangre de 10 ml. Se excluyeron 150 individuos con ayuno menor a 8 horas y cuatro personas con diabetes gestacional. La muestra final fue de 1 945 adultos que expande a 78.3 millones de adultos. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de prediabetes fue de 22.1%, y de diabetes diagnosticada y no diagnosticada de 12.6 y 5.8%, respectivamente, lo que resulta en una prevalencia de diabetes total de 18.3%. Conclusión. La diabetes en México es muy prevalente e implica un reto importante para el sistema de salud. Se requieren acciones contundentes para prevenir la enfermedad, mejorar el tamizaje, el diagnóstico oportuno y el control de la enfermedad.

Detección, diagnóstico previo y tratamiento de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles en adultos mexicanos. Ensanut 2022.

OBJETIVO: Presentar las prevalencias de adultos que acudieron a realizarse pruebas de detección de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) en el año previo, las prevalencias por diagnóstico previo de algunas ECNT, así como la proporción de los que siguen tratamiento farmacológico. Material y métodos. Se analizó la información de los cuestionarios de 11 895 adultos participantes de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2022. Se presentan prevalencias e intervalos de confianza al 95%. RESULTADOS: En el año previo se realizaron pruebas de detección de diabetes 12.2%, de hipertensión 9.1% y de dislipidemias 9.0%. La prevalencia por diagnóstico previo de diabetes es de 10.9%, de hipertensión 15.9% y de hipercolesterolemia 30.6%; de éstos, siguen tratamiento farmacológico 89.5, 81.7 y 60.4%, respectivamente. Conclusión. Los porcentajes de quienes acudieron a realizarse pruebas de tamizaje siguen siendo bajas y aún son inferiores a los observados en 2012. Tanto las prevalencias por diagnóstico previo de diabetes y de hipercolesterolemia han aumentado, mientras que la de hipertensión disminuyó 0.17%. Es recomendable realizar la detección de factores de riesgo cardiovascular, incluyendo la diabetes, de manera integrada y se incrementen las tasas de tratamiento.

Prevalence of prediabetes in Mexico: a retrospective analysis of nationally representative surveys spanning 2016-2022.

Background: Characterizing prediabetes phenotypes may be useful in guiding diabetes prevention efforts; however, heterogeneous criteria to define prediabetes have led to inconsistent prevalence estimates, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we estimated trends in prediabetes prevalence in Mexico across different prediabetes definitions and their association with prevalent cardiometabolic conditions. Methods: We conducted a serial cross-sectional analysis of National Health and Nutrition Surveys in Mexico (2016-2022), totalling 22 081 Mexican adults. After excluding individuals with diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes, we defined prediabetes using ADA (impaired fasting glucose [IFG] 100-125 mg/dL and/or HbA1c 5.7-6.4%), WHO (IFG 110-125 mg/dL), and IEC criteria (HbA1c 6.0-6.4%). Prevalence trends of prediabetes over time were evaluated using weighted Poisson regression and its association with prevalent cardiometabolic conditions with weighted logistic regression. Findings: The prevalence of prediabetes (either IFG or high HbA1c [ADA]) in Mexico was 20.9% in 2022. Despite an overall downward trend in prediabetes (RR 0.973, 95% CI 0.957-0.988), this was primarily driven by decreases in prediabetes by ADA-IFG (RR 0.898, 95% CI 0.880-0.917) and WHO-IFG criteria (RR 0.919, 95% CI 0.886-0.953), while prediabetes by ADA-HbA1c (RR 1.055, 95% CI 1.033-1.077) and IEC-HbA1C criteria (RR 1.085, 95% CI 1.045-1.126) increased over time. Prediabetes prevalence increased over time in adults >40 years, with central obesity, self-identified as indigenous or living in urban areas. For all definitions, prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic conditions. Interpretation: Prediabetes rates in Mexico from 2016 to 2022 varied based on defining criteria but consistently increased for HbA1c-based definitions and high-risk subgroups. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatría in Mexico. JAS was supported by NIH/NIDDK Grant# K23DK135798.

The Trend in the Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus in the Mexican Indigenous Population From 2000 to 2018.

Introduction: Diabetes is a worldwide public health problem. In Mexico, diabetes was the third leading cause of death in the total population in 2020. The indigenous people in Mexico are approximately 6%. This study aims to estimate the trends in diabetes prevalence from 2000 to 2018 in the group of Mexican indigenous language speakers and to analyze the main sociodemographic (e.g., age, educational and socioeconomic level, and the urbanicity of the area of residence) and clinical (e.g., age of diabetes onset, years with diabetes, and BMI) characteristics of this group. Methods: This cross-sectional study included participants aged ≥20 years from 4 National Health Surveys, 2000-2018. We presented the analyses for indigenous and nonindigenous strata. Logistic models adjusted were used to estimate the trend of diabetes in the study period. Results: We found a significant increase in the prevalence of diabetes in the indigenous group. This trend in the ORs was maintained when adjusting for age, sex, waist circumference, and area of residence. For the study period, the prevalence change in diagnosed diabetes in the indigenous group was greater than that in the nonindigenous group (OR=6.4, 95% CI=4.1, 8.8 and OR=3.3, 95% CI=2.5, 4.1, respectively). We also found a significant prevalence change in undiagnosed diabetes for the indigenous group (OR=7.7, 95% CI=1.3, 14.6). Conclusions: In contrast to the results in nonindigenous populations, our main result reveals an increasing probability of being diabetic in the indigenous population from 2006 to 2018. It is necessary to clarify the origin of the accelerated change in diabetes prevalence among the indigenous population in Mexico.

Prevalence and development of a risk score for oral human papillomavirus infection in men who have sex with men in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for oral human papillomavirus (HPV infection). There are no specific screening guidelines to facilitate the identification of people at risk for oral HPV infection. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of oral high-risk HPV and create a risk score to identify MSM at higher risk for prevalent oral HPV. METHODS: We collected baseline data from a clinical trial from a subsample of 500 MSM attending sexually transmitted disease treatment clinics; they provided an oral gargle sample for high-risk HPV detection. We calculated oral high-risk HPV prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), used a logistic regression model to identify factors associated with high-risk HPV infection, and created a risk score. RESULTS: The prevalence of any oral high-risk HPV among MSM was 11.1% (95% CI: 8.6-14.2), with a higher prevalence observed among men living with HIV (14.8%). Factors independently associated with oral high-risk HPV were age ≥40 years (OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.28-5.73 compared to <40 years), being HIV-positive with CD4 count 200-499 (OR = 2.76, 95% CI: 1.34-5.65 compared to HIV-negative), and recent recreational use of vasodilators (poppers/sildenafil) (OR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.02-2.97). The risk score had good discriminatory power (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.63-0.77). CONCLUSIONS: MSM have specific predictors for prevalent oral high-risk HPV, and a risk score could be used by clinicians to target men with vaccine recommendations and counseling, and identify those who could benefit from primary interventions given the available resources, or for referral to dental services for follow-up when available.

Diagnostic performance of questionnaires to identify individuals with impaired fasting glucose in Mexican adult population.

AIMS: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of five questionnaires to identify impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in Mexican adult population. METHODS: The study included 23,311 subjects from five cohorts, three composed of individuals who sought medical advice in their first level clinics or participated in research studies and two representative surveys of the Mexican population. The reference standard was IFG which was defined as a fasting glucose ≥ 100 mg/dL. Diagnostic performance was evaluated with specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values, area under the curve, and the proportion of correctly classified individuals. RESULTS: The prevalence of IFG ranged from 14.4 to 48.1 % across the cohorts. Diagnostic performance of the questionnaires varied in each cohort depending on IFG prevalence. The questionnaires designed by Rojas, American Diabetes Association and International Diabetes Federation had the best performance considering the correct classification (>66.0 %) of subjects in all cohorts. However, Rojas' questionnaire had the best balance between sensitivity and specificity across the cohorts. CONCLUSION: In the Mexican population, considering different scenarios, the Rojas' questionnaire had the best diagnostic performance. The implementation of questionnaires for the identification of prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes requires further study in specific populations.

Trends in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in Mexican adults, 2006-2018 / Tendencia en la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico y sus componentes en adultos mexicanos, 2006-2018

Abstract: Objective: To examine trends in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and its components. Materials and methods: Data from 27 800 Mexican adults who participated in Ensanut 2006, 2012, 2016 and 2018 were analyzed. Linear regression was used across each Ensanut period to assess temporal linear trends in the prevalence of MS. Logistic regression models were obtained to calculate the percentage change, p-value for the trend and the association between the presence of MS and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) over 10 years using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) using Globorisk. Results: The prevalence of MS in Mexican adults according to the harmonized definition was: 40.2, 57.3, 59.99 and 56.31%, in 2006, 2012, 2016 and 2018 respectively (p for trend <0.0001). In 2018, 7.62% of metabolic syndrome cases had a significant risk for incident DM2 and 11.6% for CVD. Conclusion: It is estimated that there are 36.5 million Mexican adults living with metabolic syndrome, of which 2 million and 2.5 million have a high risk of developing T2DM or cardiovascular disease respectively, over the next 10 years.

Resumen: Objetivo: Examinar las tendencias en la prevalencia del síndrome metabólico (SM) y de sus componentes. Material y métodos: Se analizaron datos de 27 800 adultos mexicanos que participaron en las Ensanut 2006, 2012, 2016 y 2018. Se utilizó regresión lineal en cada periodo de Ensanut para evaluar las tendencias lineales temporales en la prevalencia del SM. Se obtuvieron modelos de regresión logística para calcular el cambio porcentual, P para la tendencia y las asociaciones entre la SM con el riesgo de desarrollar en 10 años diabetes mellitus tipo 2 utilizando la Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) y enfermedad cardiovascular utilizando Globorisk. Resultados: La prevalencia de SM en adultos mexicanos según la definición armonizada fue: 40.2, 57.3, 59.99 y 56.31%, en 2006, 2012, 2016 y 2018 respectivamente (p para tendencia <0.0001). En 2018, 7.62% de los casos de síndrome metabólico tenían un riesgo significativo de DM2 incidente y 11.6% de ECV. Conclusión: Se estima que los adultos mexicanos con síndrome metabólico son 36.5 millones; de ellos, dos millones tienen un alto riesgo de desarrollar DMT2 en los próximos 10 años y 2.5 millones enfermedades cardiovasculares.

Prevalence of diabetes and glycemic control in Mexico: national results from 2018 and 2020 / Prevalencia de diabetes y control glucémico en México: resultados nacionales 2018 y 2020

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed), glycemic control in Mexico, and its associated factors. Materials and methods: We used data from Ensanut 2018 (n=12 648) and 2020 (n=2 309). We defined diabetes as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl or HbA1c≥6.5% or previously diagnosed; glycemic control was defined as HbA1c<7%. We fitted Poisson regression models to assess the association between diabetes, glycemic control, and potential associated factors. Results: The total prevalence of diabetes was 16.8% in 2018 and 15.7% in 2020. In 2018, 38% of adults with diabetes were unaware of their disease, while in 2020 this figure was 29%. Glycemic control was observed in 42% of participants in 2018 and 39% in 2020. Longer disease duration was associated with lower glycemic control, while older age, having a diet, and being affiliated to IMSS, Pemex, Sedena, or private healthcare were associated with better control. Conclusion: Mexico is among the countries with the highest diabetes prevalence. A high proportion of adults with diabetes did not have a previous diagnosis, and the proportion with glycemic control is low. Strengthening screening to achieve a timely diagnosis, and improving glycemic control, should be key actions in the management of diabetes.

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de diabetes total (diagnosticada y no diagnosticada), control glucémico en México y sus factores asociados. Material y métodos: Se analizó información de la Ensanut 2018 (n=12 648) y 2020 (n=2 309). Se definió diabetes como glucosa en ayunas ≥126 mg/dl o HbA1c≥6.5% o diagnóstico previo; se consideró control glucémico si HbA1c<7%. Usando modelos de regresión de Poisson, se estimaron los factores asociados con diabetes y control glucémico. Resultados: La prevalencia de diabetes fue de 16.8% en 2018 y 15.7% en 2020. En 2018, 38% de los adultos con diabetes desconocían su enfermedad, en 2020 fue 29%. El control glucémico se observó en 42% de los participantes en 2018 y en 39% en 2020. Mayor tiempo de diagnóstico se asoció con descontrol glucémico mientras que mayor edad, seguir una dieta y estar afiliado al IMSS, Pemex/Sedena o privados se asoció con control glucémico. Conclusión: México se encuentra entre los países con mayor prevalencia de diabetes. Una alta proporción de adultos con diabetes no tenía un diagnóstico previo y la proporción con control glucémico es baja. Fortalecer la detección, el diagnóstico oportuno y el control glucémico es clave para el manejo de la diabetes.

Early childhood development and urban environment in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Childhood is considered the most important phase of human development; within it the period from birth to 5 years of age is particularly critical, given the speed at which changes occur. The context where children live can influence early childhood developmnent (ECD) by providing or limiting opportunities to learn, play and establish social interactions. This study explored the associations between characteristics of the urban environment and ECD in 2,194 children aged 36 to 59 months living in urban municipalities in Mexico. METHODS: We obtained ECD information from the 2015 Survey of Boys, Girls, and Women (ENIM, for its Spanish acronym), measured with the Early Childhood Development Index. The urban environment was evaluated at the municipal level, considering variables from five environment domains: physical, social, service, socioeconomic, and governance. Multilevel logistic models were fitted to assess the association between urban environment characteristics and the inadequacy of ECD in general and by specific development domains: learning, socio-emotional, physical, and alpha-numeric. RESULTS: Inadequate ECD was inversely associated with the availability of libraries (OR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.43, 0.72), and positively associated with population density (OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 1.01-1.02). For the specific ECD domains, inadequate socio-emotional development was inversely associated with the availability of libraries (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.85). Inadequate literacy-numeracy knowledge was associated inversely with the availability of daycare centers (OR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.97), and directly associated with the number of hospitals and clinics (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.72). Finally, the marginalization index was positively associated with inadequacy in the learning domain (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.06, 3.03). CONCLUSIONS: Some aspects of the urban environment associated with ECD, suggest that intervening in the urban context could improve overall child development. Investment in resources oriented to improve socio-emotional development and literacy (such as libraries and daycare), could foster ECD in Mexico.

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico.

Arterial hypertension is a major global health problem. It is the main risk factor for preventable death and the leading cause of premature death in the world. This study aims to describe the changes in hypertension-related mortality in Mexico between 1998 and 2018. Using death certificates and national population public data sets, a total of 335,863 deaths due to hypertension were found in Mexico, disaggregated by sex and age, during the time period covered in this study. An age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to show trends in hypertension mortality rates. Mortality due to hypertension in Mexico affects more women than men. In the most recent cohorts, the risk of dying from hypertension is two times higher in men compared to women. Hypertensive kidney disease is found to be the main underlying cause, with an average increase throughout the period studied. Our results indicate that mortality rates due to hypertension continue to grow and point to an alarming trend of mortality shifting towards younger ages, with sex-based disparities in absolute numbers and in changing trends.

Clinical and metabolomic predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a population at intermediate cardiometabolic risk.

BACKGROUND: Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is a prevalent and potentially reversible intermediate stage leading to type 2 diabetes that increases risk for cardiometabolic complications. The identification of clinical and molecular factors associated with the reversal, or regression, from IFG to a normoglycemia state would enable more efficient cardiovascular risk reduction strategies. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and biological predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a non-European population characterized by high rates of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, population-based study among 9637 Mexican individuals using clinical features and plasma metabolites. Among them, 491 subjects were classified as IFG, defined as fasting glucose between 100 and 125 mg/dL at baseline. Regression to normoglycemia was defined by fasting glucose less than 100 mg/dL in the follow-up visit. Plasma metabolites were profiled by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance. Multivariable cox regression models were used to examine the associations of clinical and metabolomic factors with regression to normoglycemia. We assessed the predictive capability of models that included clinical factors alone and models that included clinical factors and prioritized metabolites. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 2.5 years, 22.6% of participants (n = 111) regressed to normoglycemia, and 29.5% progressed to type 2 diabetes (n = 145). The multivariate adjusted relative risk of regression to normoglycemia was 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 1.32) per 10 years of age increase, 0.94 (95% CI 0.91-0.98) per 1 SD increase in BMI, and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.95) per 1 SD increase in fasting glucose. A model including information from age, fasting glucose, and BMI showed a good prediction of regression to normoglycemia (AUC = 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.78). The improvement after adding information from prioritized metabolites (TG in large HDL, albumin, and citrate) was non-significant (AUC = 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.80), p value = 0.485). CONCLUSION: In individuals with IFG, information from three clinical variables easily obtained in the clinical setting showed a good prediction of regression to normoglycemia beyond metabolomic features. Our findings can serve to inform and design future cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Trends in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in Mexican adults, 2006-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and its components. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 27 800 Mexican adults who participated in Ensanut 2006, 2012, 2016 and 2018 were analyzed. Linear regression was used across each Ensanut period to assess temporal linear trends in the prevalence of MS. Logistic regression models were obtained to calculate the percentage change, p-value for the trend and the association between the presence of MS and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) over 10 years using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) using Globorisk. RESULTS: The prevalence of MS in Mexican adults according to the harmonized definition was: 40.2, 57.3, 59.99 and 56.31%, in 2006, 2012, 2016 and 2018 respectively (p for trend <0.0001). In 2018, 7.62% of metabolic syndrome cases had a significant risk for incident DM2 and 11.6% for CVD. CONCLUSION: It is estimated that there are 36.5 million Mexican adults living with metabolic syndrome, of which 2 million and 2.5 million have a high risk of developing T2DM or cardiovascular disease respectively, over the next 10 years.

Prevalence of diabetes and glycemic control in Mexico: national results from 2018 and 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed), glycemic control in Mexico, and its associated factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from Ensanut 2018 (n=12 648) and 2020 (n=2 309). We defined diabetes as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl or HbA1c≥6.5% or previously diagnosed; glycemic control was defined as HbA1c<7%. We fitted Poisson regression models to assess the association between diabetes, glycemic control, and potential associated factors. RESULTS: The total prevalence of diabetes was 16.8% in 2018 and 15.7% in 2020. In 2018, 38% of adults with diabetes were unaware of their disease, while in 2020 this figure was 29%. Glycemic control was observed in 42% of participants in 2018 and 39% in 2020. Longer disease duration was associated with lower glycemic control, while older age, having a diet, and being affiliated to IMSS, Pemex, Sedena, or private healthcare were associated with better control. CONCLUSION: Mexico is among the countries with the highest diabetes prevalence. A high proportion of adults with diabetes did not have a previous diagnosis, and the proportion with glycemic control is low. Strengthening screening to achieve a timely diagnosis, and improving glycemic control, should be key actions in the management of diabetes.

Development and validation of a tool for predicting type 2 diabetes in Mexican women of reproductive age / Desarrollo y validación de una herramienta de predicción de diabetes tipo 2 en mujeres mexicanas en edad reproductiva

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes is a worldwide problem with a greater impact in developing countries, where many people are unaware of their risk. In Mexico, women show the greatest risk for T2D. Current risk scores have been developed and validated in predominantly older European cohorts. They are not the best option in Mexican women. The development of a risk model/score in this population would be useful. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk model and score that incorporates the most relevant risk factors for T2D in Mexican women of reproductive age. METHODS: The study was carried out in two phases, with the first phase being the development of the predictive model and the second phase the validation of the model in a separate independent population. A cohort of Mexican patients of reproductive age ("Derivation Cohort") was used to create the predictive model. It included data on 3161 women. Risk factors for identification were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Finally a score with a range of 0 to 19 points was developed to identify the 2.4 year probability of developing DM2 in Mexican women of reproductive age. RESULTS: 147 new cases of T2D (4.6%) were identified in the Derivation Cohort model, 97 of 925 participants (10.48%) in the validation cohort. The risk factor predictors of T2D were: history of gestational diabetes (HR 2.69, 95% CI 1.10-6.58), BMI (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06), hypertriglyceridemia (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.11-2.14) and fasting blood glucose (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05-1.08), with an AUC of 0.75. The AUC in the validation cohort was 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94). The score had a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 67% at a cutoff of ≥15. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model and risk score was developed to detect cases at risk for incident T2D. It was generated using the characteristics of Mexican women of reproductive age. This risk score is a step forward in attempting to address the generational legacy that diabetes in pregnancy could have on women and their children

INTRODUCCIÓN: La diabetes es un problema mundial con mayor impacto en los países en desarrollo, donde muchas personas desconocen su riesgo. En México las mujeres muestran un mayor riesgo de diabetes tipo 2 (DT2). Las escalas de riesgo actuales se han desarrollado y validado principalmente en cohortes europeas de edad avanzada y no representan la mejor opción para las mujeres mexicanas. El desarrollo de un modelo/puntaje de riesgo en esta población sería útil. OBJETIVO: Desarrollar y validar un modelo y escala de riesgo que incorpore los factores de riesgo de la DT2 más relevantes en las mujeres mexicanas en edad reproductiva. MÉTODOS: El estudio se realizó en 2 fases, en la primera se desarrolló el modelo predictivo en una cohorte de 3.161 mujeres mexicanas en edad reproductiva (cohorte de derivación) y en la segunda se validó en una población independiente. Se utilizó una regresión de riesgos proporcionales de Cox. Finalmente se desarrolló una escala de riesgo de 0 a 19, para identificar la probabilidad de desarrollar DT2 en 2,4 años en las mujeres mexicanas en edad reproductiva. El punto de corte fue ≥15, con una sensibilidad del 73% y una especificidad del 67%. RESULTADOS: Se identificaron 147 (4,6%) casos nuevos de DT2 en la cohorte de derivación del modelo y 97 de 925 (10,48%) en la cohorte de validación. Los factores de riesgo predictivos de DT2 fueron: historia de diabetes gestacional (HR: 2,69; IC 95%: 1,10-6,58), IMC (HR: 1,03; IC 95%: 1,01-1,06), hipertrigliceridemia (HR: 1,54; IC 95%: 1,11-2,14) y glucosa de ayuno (HR: 1,06; IC 95%: 1,05-1,08), con AUC de 0,75 y 0,91 (IC 95%: 0,87-0,95) en la cohorte de validación. CONCLUSIONES: Se desarrolló un modelo y score de riesgo para detectar casos en riesgo de diabetes incidente. Esta herramienta fue generada empleando las características de las mujeres mexicanas en edad reproductiva. El score de riesgo es un paso adelante al tratar de abordar el legado generacional que la diabetes en el embarazo podría tener sobre las mujeres y sus hijos

[Methodological bases of the measurement of earlychildhood development in the Ensanut 100k survey]. / Bases metodológicas de lamedición de desarrollo infantiltemprano en la Ensanut 100k.

OBJECTIVE: The methods that were carried out for the inclusion of the early childhood development module in the Ensanut 100k are presented. MATERIALS AND METHODS: With this module and the questionnaire for children under five years-old, indicators of the state of health, development and well-being of children in the first five years of life are obtained. From November to December 2017, the sample design, instruments and manuals were defined and a test was carried out. Field staff were trained and standardized. The information was collected between January and June 2018. RESULTS: 3 892 children from 0 to 59 months of age were studied in the DIT Module of the Survey. CONCLUSIONS: Training and standardization of field personnel, by trained and standardized personnel, minimizes information biases.

OBJETIVO: Presentar los métodos realizados para la inclu-sión del módulo de Desarrollo Infantil Temprano (DIT) en la Ensanut 100k. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Con dicho módulo y el cuestionario de menores de cinco años, se obtuvieron indicadores del estado de salud, desarrollo y bienestar de niñas/os en los primeros cinco años de vida.De noviembre a diciembre de 2017, se definió el diseño de la muestra, instrumentos y manuales, y se realizó una prueba piloto. Se capacitó y estandarizó al personal de campo. El levantamiento de información se realizó entre enero y junio de 2018. RESULTADOS: Se estudió en el módulo DIT de la encuesta a 3 892 niños/as de 0 a 59 meses de edad. CONCLUSIONES: La capacitación y estandarización del personal de campo, por parte de personal capacitado y estandarizado, minimiza los sesgos de información.

Bases metodológicas de la medición de desarrollo infantil temprano en la Ensanut 100k / Methodological bases of the measurement of early childhood development in the Ensanut 100k survey

Resumen Objetivo: Presentar los métodos realizados para la inclusión del módulo de Desarrollo Infantil Temprano (DIT) en la Ensanut 100k. Material y métodos: Con dicho módulo y el cuestionario de menores de cinco años, se obtuvieron indicadores del estado de salud, desarrollo y bienestar de niñas/os en los primeros cinco años de vida. De noviembre a diciembre de 2017, se definió el diseño de la muestra, instrumentos y manuales, y se realizó una prueba piloto. Se capacitó y estandarizó al personal de campo. El levantamiento de información se realizó entre enero y junio de 2018. Resultados: Se estudió en el módulo DIT de la encuesta a 3 892 niños/as de 0 a 59 meses de edad. Conclusiones: La capacitación y estandarización del personal de campo, por parte de personal capacitado y estandarizado, minimiza los sesgos de información.

Abstract Objective: The methods that were carried out for the inclusion of the early childhood development module in the Ensanut 100k are presented. Materials and methods: With this module and the questionnaire for children under five years-old, indicators of the state of health, development and well-being of children in the first five years of life are obtained. From November to December 2017, the sample design, instruments and manuals were defined and a test was carried out. Field staff were trained and standardized. The information was collected between January and June 2018. Results: 3 892 children from 0 to 59 months of age were studied in the DIT Module of the Survey. Conclusions: Training and standardization of field personnel, by trained and standardized personnel, minimizes information biases.

Development and validation of a tool for predicting type 2 diabetes in Mexican women of reproductive age.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes is a worldwide problem with a greater impact in developing countries, where many people are unaware of their risk. In Mexico, women show the greatest risk for T2D. Current risk scores have been developed and validated in predominantly older European cohorts. They are not the best option in Mexican women. The development of a risk model/score in this population would be useful. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk model and score that incorporates the most relevant risk factors for T2D in Mexican women of reproductive age. METHODS: The study was carried out in two phases, with the first phase being the development of the predictive model and the second phase the validation of the model in a separate independent population. A cohort of Mexican patients of reproductive age ("Derivation Cohort") was used to create the predictive model. It included data on 3161 women. Risk factors for identification were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Finally a score with a range of 0 to 19 points was developed to identify the 2.4 year probability of developing DM2 in Mexican women of reproductive age. RESULTS: 147 new cases of T2D (4.6%) were identified in the Derivation Cohort model, 97 of 925 participants (10.48%) in the validation cohort. The risk factor predictors of T2D were: history of gestational diabetes (HR 2.69, 95% CI 1.10-6.58), BMI (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06), hypertriglyceridemia (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.11-2.14) and fasting blood glucose (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05-1.08), with an AUC of 0.75. The AUC in the validation cohort was 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94). The score had a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 67% at a cutoff of ≥15. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model and risk score was developed to detect cases at risk for incident T2D. It was generated using the characteristics of Mexican women of reproductive age. This risk score is a step forward in attempting to address the generational legacy that diabetes in pregnancy could have on women and their children.

Impact of the 'Seguro Médico Siglo XXI' medical insurance programme on neonatal and infant mortality in Mexico, 2006-14: an ecological approach to estimation.

The 'Seguro Médico Siglo XXI' (SMSXXI), a universal coverage medical insurance programme for children under 5 years of age, started in 2006 to help avoid catastrophic health expenditures in poor families without social security in Mexico. The study used information from the National Health Information System for the 2006-14 period. An ecological approach was followed with a panel of the 2457 municipalities of Mexico as the units of analysis. The outcome variables were the municipality-level neonatal mortality and infant mortality rates in population without access to social security. The programme variable was the coverage of the SMSXXI programme at the municipality level, expressed as a proportion. Demographic and economic variables defined at the municipality level were included as covariates. Impact was estimated by fitting a fixed-effects negative binomial regression model. Results reveal that the SMSXXI significantly reduced both infant and neonatSal mortality in the target population, although in a non-linear fashion, with minimum mortality levels found around the 70% coverage range. The effect is mostly given by the transition from the first quintile to the fourth quintile of coverage (<13% vs 70.5-93.7% coverage), and it is attenuated significantly at coverage levels very close to or at 100%. The observed risk reduction amounted to an estimated total of 11 358 infant deaths being avoided due to the SMSXXI during the 2006-14 period, of which 48% were neonatal. In conclusion, we found a significant impact of the SMSXXI programme on both infant mortality and neonatal mortality. An attenuation of the effect of the insurance on mortality rates at levels close to 100% coverage may reflect the saturation of health units in detriment of the quality of care.

Prevalencia de diabetes y descontrol glucémico en México: resultados de la Ensanut 2016 / Prevalence of diabetes and poor glycemic control in Mexico: results from Ensanut 2016

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de diabetes (total, diagnosticada y no diagnosticada), de descontrol glucémico en México y sus factores asociados. Material y métodos: Se analizaron 3 700 adultos participantes en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2016. Se estimaron las prevalencias con ponderadores poblacionales y los factores asociados con diabetes total y descontrol glucémico con modelos de regresión de Poisson. Resultados: La prevalencia total de diabetes fue de 13.7% (9.5% diagnosticada, 4.1% no diagnosticada); 68.2% de los diagnosticados presentó descontrol glucémico. Mayor tiempo de diagnóstico, vivir en el centro/sur del país y ser atendido en farmacias se asoció con descontrol glucémico, mientras que ser atendido en los servicios de seguridad social se asoció con mejor control glucémico. Conclusión: Se requieren esfuerzos multisectoriales para fortalecer el tamizaje, diagnóstico oportuno y control de la enfermedad, considerando las diferencias por región y tipo de servicio de salud.

Abstract: Objective: To estimate the prevalence of total, diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, and the prevalence of poor glycemic control in Mexico, and its associated factors. Materials and methods: Data from 3 700 adult participants were analysed in the 2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey. Diabetes prevalences were estimated with population weights, and the factors associated with total diabetes and poor glycemic control with Poisson regression models. Results: The total prevalence of diabetes was 13.7% (9.5% diagnosed, 4.1% undiagnosed); 68.2% of people with diagnosed diabetes presented poor glycemic control. Longer disease duration, living in the centre or south of the country and being treated in pharmacies were associated with poor glycemic control. Being treated in a social security system was associated with better glycemic control. Conclusion: Multisectoral efforts are needed to strengthen screening, timely diagnosis and disease control, considering differences by region and type of health service.